The Bigger Picture: Why AVAX's Overall Trend is Decidedly Bearish

Before examining the recent signals, understanding the prevailing market conditions is paramount. Data from the Turbo Trade Bot shows that nearly all key trend indicators, on the 2-hour timeframe and even higher, confirm a bearish state. The price is below the 200-period moving average (Under MA200) and beneath the red Ichimoku Kumo Cloud (Red Cloud & Under Cloud). These two factors alone are sufficient to define a bear market. Furthermore, the "In DownTrend" and "Under Bullish TrendLine" conditions are also active, indicating the failure of previous bullish structures and the complete dominance of sellers.

Bearish Alignment Across Multiple Timeframes

The strength of a trend is confirmed when it is consistent across various timeframes. For Avalanche, we are seeing this exact alignment. Conditions such as the price being under the Kumo Cloud, a red MACD, and a bearish UT Bot are consistent across almost all key timeframes (15m, 2h, 6h, 8h). This harmony tells us that the selling pressure is not a short-term sentiment but a deeply rooted market conviction that views any upward movement as an opportunity to sell again.

Signs of Hope: The Buyers' Failed Attempt to Shift the Trend

Despite this grim outlook, savvy traders always look for signs of a potential shift. On the AVAX chart, two important events indicated an attempt by buyers. The first and most significant was the presence of a Bullish Divergence. This divergence, visible on both the 2-hour and 8-hour timeframes, suggested that despite new price lows being made, the momentum and strength of the sellers were diminishing.


Signs of Hope The Buyers Failed Attempt to Shift the Trend

The Stochastic Buy Signal: A Spark That Quickly Extinguished

Approximately 2 hours and 17 minutes ago, based on this divergence and oversold market conditions, a buy signal was triggered by the Stoch Cross Strategy [↗️🟢 Long 2h]. This signal activates when the Stochastic indicator's lines cross upwards in the oversold territory. This event, which was also in line with the older "Bullish Tenkan Kijun Cross," gave buyers hope for a short-term rally, and the price managed a slight increase. However, this hope was short-lived.

The Sellers' Final Blow: The Bearish MACD Cross Signal

The turning point of today's analysis is an event that occurred just 29 minutes ago. The Turbo Trade Bot issued a sell signal from the MACD Cross Strategy [↘️🔴 Short 2h]. This signal is triggered when the MACD line crosses below its signal line. The importance of this signal is twofold: firstly, it indicates a complete loss of the bullish momentum that was generated by the stochastic cross. Secondly, this signal was issued in the direction of the primary, powerful downtrend, which drastically increases its validity. In essence, this bearish MACD cross was the sellers' decisive answer to the bulls' attempt.

Why the MACD Signal Trumps the Stoch Signal Here

In technical analysis, the MACD is generally considered a mid-term trend and momentum indicator, while the Stochastic is a faster, more short-term oscillator. When a signal from a slower indicator (MACD) negates a signal from a faster one (Stoch), it usually implies that the short-term move was merely a pullback or correction, and the primary trend is set to resume with greater force. This is precisely the scenario we are witnessing in the Avalanche (AVAXUSDT) price technical analysis.

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Conclusion: Scenarios Ahead for Avalanche (AVAXUSDT)

Given that the buy signal was neutralized by a more powerful sell signal aligned with the main trend, the short-term outlook for Avalanche appears bearish.

The Bearish Scenario (High Probability)

With the issuance of the MACD cross signal, this is the more probable scenario. For confirmation, the price needs to consolidate below the low that was established before the stochastic buy signal. A break of this support level would signify that the bullish divergence has completely failed, and we should expect a price decline towards lower support levels. Traders might consider entering a short position with a stop-loss above the high of the candle where the MACD signal was triggered.

The Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)

For buyers to regain control, they must invalidate the MACD sell signal. This would require the price to push forcefully above the high of the MACD signal candle and stabilize there. If this happens, it would suggest a "fakeout" of the sell signal, and the bullish divergence might regain its potency, potentially driving the price towards higher resistances, including the downtrend line and the Kumo Cloud. This scenario currently has a lower probability.

Disclaimer: This content is for analytical and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a trade signal. You are solely responsible for all your trading decisions.