The Macro View: Why the Sky Over NEAR Remains Cloudy

Before diving into the excitement of the recent rally and the new sell signals, it's crucial to understand the bigger picture. Market conditions on the 12-hour and 4-hour timeframes, which shape the mid-to-long-term perspective, are unequivocally bearish. The price is trading below the 200-period Moving Average (Under MA200) and the red Ichimoku Kumo Cloud (Red Cloud & Under Cloud). These two indicators alone signify an absolute dominance of sellers in the market. Furthermore, conditions such as "In DownTrend," the Chikou Span being below the price (Chikou.S Under Price), and an active Red UT Bot all reinforce this bearish outlook. This alignment on higher timeframes tells us that any upward movement is more likely a correction or a "sell the rip" opportunity rather than a genuine trend reversal, at least until key structures are broken.

The Importance of Timeframe Congruence in Analysis

A key insight from the Turbo Bot data is the conflict between timeframes. While the 12h and 4h charts are thoroughly bearish, the 30-minute timeframe shows an "Up Trend Initial." This is a very common situation known as a "corrective rally within a larger downtrend." Professional traders often use these short-term rallies to enter short positions at optimal points—specifically, where the short-term rally meets the resistance levels of the long-term trend. Today's analysis focuses on precisely this inflection point.

The Bullish Spark: How NEAR's Short-Term Rally Ignited

Approximately 24 to 40 hours ago, a series of bullish signals appeared on the 4-hour timeframe, igniting this short-term upward move. Events like the "Bullish Stoch Cross," "Bullish Hook," and, most importantly, the "Bullish MACD Cross" were triggered in succession. These signals indicated rising buyer momentum and an oversold market, successfully pushing the price higher. The move was strong enough to turn the 4-hour MACD green (Green MACD), signifying a short-term dominance of bullish momentum. But the critical question remained: was this momentum sufficient to break through the heavy resistance of the primary trend?

The Anomaly of a Green MACD in a Downtrend

Seeing a green MACD while nearly all other conditions are bearish is a warning sign for traders. This situation suggests that although buying pressure has increased in recent candles, this strength has not yet managed to alter the overall market structure. In such contexts, a green MACD is more indicative of a "correction" than a "reversal." Buyers who enter trades based solely on this signal risk getting caught in a bull trap.

Hitting a Wall: Sell Signals at Key Resistance Levels

The climax of today's analysis is where the bullish rally met two critical resistance levels and was stopped dead in its tracks by consecutive sell signals. About 3 hours and 9 minutes ago, the price reached a flat Kijun-sen level, and the "Touch Flat Kijun" strategy issued a sell signal. In the Ichimoku system, a flat Kijun-sen acts like a magnet and a powerful resistance or support zone. But the final blow came just 10 minutes later.


Hitting a Wall Sell Signals at Key Resistance Levels

The Golden Signal: Rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci

Approximately 2 hours and 59 minutes ago, the price hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous down-wave, and the Turbo Trade Bot issued a decisive sell signal from the Touch Fibo 0.618 Strategy [↘️🔴 Short 4h]. The 0.618 Fibonacci level, also known as the "Golden Ratio," is one of the most significant and reliable reversal levels in technical analysis. When the price in a downtrend rallies to this level and fails to break through, it's a very strong indication that the corrective rally is over and sellers have returned in full force to push the price to new lows. This single signal overshadows all the previous bullish signals and clarifies the most probable path forward.

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Scenarios Ahead for NEAR Protocol (NEARUSDT)

Given the decisive rejection from the key Fibonacci resistance level and the issuance of a sell signal, the short-term outlook for the NEAR Protocol (NEARUSDT) price technical analysis is heavily skewed to the downside.

The Bearish Continuation Scenario (High Probability)

This is the most likely path forward. With the Fibonacci sell signal activated, selling pressure is expected to increase. The first target for sellers would be the price low from where the bullish rally began. A break of this support level would provide final confirmation of the downtrend's resumption, opening the way for lower price targets. Traders might consider entering short positions with a stop-loss placed slightly above the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the high of the signal candle.

The Unlikely Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability)

For buyers to keep their hopes alive, they need to achieve something extraordinary: they must forcefully break through the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance and the Kijun-sen, and then consolidate the price above these levels. If this were to happen, the recent sell signal would be considered a "fakeout," and the price might move to test higher resistances, including the main downtrend line and the 200 MA. Given the strength of the bearish structure on higher timeframes, this scenario currently has a very low probability.

Disclaimer: This content is for analytical and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a trade signal. You are solely responsible for all your trading decisions.