The Macro View: The Unquestionable Dominance of Bears on Higher Timeframes

Before being deceived by positive movements on lower timeframes, it is essential to look at the overall market structure. Data from the Turbo Trade Bot for the 8-hour and 6-hour timeframes leaves no room for doubt: complete market control lies with the sellers. These conditions act as a strong headwind against any attempt to rally.

Analysis of Key Bearish Conditions (8h & 6h)

The following conditions prevail across both longer-term timeframes:

  • Red Cloud & Under Cloud: The future Kumo cloud is red, and the price is below it. This turns the cloud into a formidable resistance barrier against the price.
  • Under MA200: The price is significantly below the 200-period moving average, indicating a long-term, well-established downtrend.
  • In DownTrend: The bot's algorithms clearly identify the overall trend as bearish.
  • Red MACD & Red UT Bot: Both primary momentum indicators (MACD and UT Bot) are in a sell state (red), confirming the selling pressure.
  • Chikou.S Under Price: The Chikou Span (lagging line) is also below the price chart, which is the final confirmation of the bearish trend's strength in the Ichimoku system.

This unified set of conditions paints a thoroughly bearish outlook for Filecoin in the medium and long term. Any upward movement on lower timeframes, as long as these conditions persist, should be considered a pullback or a selling opportunity.

 

The Green Island in a Red Ocean: The Deceptive 15-Minute Uptrend

Now, let's address the source of short-term optimism: the 15-minute timeframe. On this chart, the picture is the exact opposite. The price is above a green Kumo cloud, above the 200 MA, and both the MACD and UT Bot indicators are green. These conditions indicate a healthy uptrend on a very small (scalping) scale. This is the very rally that has given some traders hope for continued ascent and even caused the MACD indicator on the 2-hour chart to turn green. But does this trend have the strength to break through the concrete wall of the higher timeframes?

The Main Battlefield: Dissecting the 2-Hour Chart

The 2-hour timeframe is where the battle between these two forces climaxes and the outcome is decided. The conditions on this chart are a combination of structural weakness and a decisive bearish signal.

Structural Breakdown: Crossing Under the Bullish Trendline

One of the most significant and alarming conditions on the 2-hour chart is the Under Bullish TrendLine status. This means that the price has broken a valid upward trendline to the downside. A trendline break is one of the most classic and reliable signals for the end of a trend and the beginning of a move in the opposite direction. This condition alone was enough to sound the alarm for buyers.

The Misleading Conflict: Green MACD vs. Red UT Bot

On this timeframe, we see an interesting conflict: the MACD is green, while the UT Bot is red. The green MACD is merely a reflection of the same short-term rally on the 15-minute timeframe. However, the UT Bot indicator, which often reacts more quickly to changes in power, remains red, warning us that the real strength is still with the sellers. In such contradictions, one should typically trust the overall structure and other indicators, all of which are bearish here.


The Misleading Conflict Green MACD vs Red UT Bot

The Final Blow: The Touch Fibo 0.5 Sell Strategy Signal

The turning point that settled this battle occurred about an hour and a half ago. The Turbo Trade Bot issued a critical sell signal from the Touch Fibo 0.5 Strategy [↘️🔴 Short 2h] at a price of $1.37.

Why is This Signal Decisive?

This signal tells us that the short-term bullish rally (seen on the 15m chart) was halted precisely at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bearish wave, meeting fierce resistance from sellers. The 0.5 Fibonacci level is a key equilibrium zone, and a price rejection from this level is a very strong signal that the corrective move is over and the main trend (which is bearish) is about to resume. This signal, combined with the break of the bullish trendline, creates a lethal combination for buyers and serves as a definitive confirmation that the short-term rally has ended.

Future Scenarios for Filecoin (FILUSDT)

Given the overwhelming evidence from the higher timeframes and the recent sell signal, the outlook for the in-depth price analysis of Filecoin (FILUSDT) is strongly bearish.

Main Scenario: Resumption of the Downtrend (Very High Probability)

This is the most likely path forward. The price is expected to continue its decline from the $1.37 level. The first target is the previous low, and if that breaks, lower targets based on Fibonacci extension levels will be activated. Any temporary bounce towards the $1.37 level or the broken trendline can be considered a new selling opportunity.

Alternative Scenario: Bullish Reversal (Very Low Probability)

To invalidate this bearish scenario, buyers would need to accomplish a nearly impossible task. They must not only push the price back above the 0.5 Fibonacci level with strength but also reclaim the broken bullish trendline and, most importantly, overcome the heavy resistance of the Kumo cloud and the 200 MA on the higher timeframes. Until that happens, this scenario remains mere wishful thinking.

Build Your Strategy with the Turbo Trade Bot

Analyzing conflicts between different timeframes and identifying precise turning points is exactly what the Turbo Trade Bot is designed for. This powerful tool, available on Telegram at @tbsignalbot, allows you to define highly specific trading strategies. For example, you could have set up a strategy that says: "If the 6-hour timeframe has 'Under MA200' and 'In DownTrend' conditions, then alert me as soon as a 'Touch Fibo 0.5' trigger occurs on the 2-hour timeframe." This bot, which operates on the Binance exchange, gives you the opportunity to test the power of your strategies with a 14-day free trial. More information and analyses are also available on the turbotradebot.com website.

Disclaimer: This content is for analytical and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a trade signal. You are solely responsible for all your trading decisions.